Betts over Ohtani? Soto over Judge? Latest on MVP, Cy Young races and more (2024)

Who has been more valuable for the Dodgers so far, Mookie Betts or Shohei Ohtani? Who has the leg up between the Yankees' dynamic one-two punch of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto? Just who is leading the Royals' surprise early run to playoff contention? Have Bobby Witt Jr. and Seth Lugo really been that good?

The races for baseball's postseason awards change on a near-daily basis during the opening weeks of the season, with our perception of them heavily influenced by what we anticipated coming into the season. However, by the time we hit Memorial Day, just as the league standings start to project an air of legitimacy, so too do we begin to get a sense of who is in contention for those coveted honors.

More than ever, the conclusions of the voters and the fans who follow such things closely are shaped by the most prominent bottom-line metrics -- i.e., the versions of wins above replacement at Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. However, these aren't the only factors in play. The eventual balloting is not -- and never should be -- a regurgitation of the WAR leaderboard.

Also crucial are contextual factors, such as how well a player performed in clutch situations, which can help separate players close in more comprehensive measures. Also important is this question: To what did the player contribute? While a player from a last-place club can contend for the MVP or Cy Young awards, if his performance is similar to that of a key player on a first-place team, we might view the production of those players a little differently.

With all this in mind, today we take our first snapshot of the most important awards races around baseball. These races will evolve, but the jockeying for position has already begun. Let's see where things stand.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Juan Soto, New York Yankees (138.4 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros (138.2); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138.1); 4. Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles (138.0); 5. Aaron Judge, Yankees (135.3); 6. Jordan Westburg, Orioles (131.3); 7. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (129.5); 8. Anthony Volpe, Yankees (129.2); 9. David Fry, Guardians (125.2); 10. Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox (125.1)

Leader trend: Right now, this race is close, with the top four in a virtual tie and No. 5 -- Judge -- closing in. Soto and Witt exchanged the top spot regularly during early May, then a prolonged hot streak from Tucker lifted him into the overall MLB lead by May 21. He has since fallen back, while Witt has caught fire again. This is going to be a fascinating race all season, with Witt perhaps gaining an edge in narrative if he is able to play a central role in keeping the upstart Royals in postseason contention.

Biggest mover: On May 11, Judge's 115.0 AXE ranked 73rd in the majors. Now he's seventh. All Judge has done during that span is hit .383/.500/.967 with nine homers and eight doubles in 17 games. Given his track record, we know that as long as Judge is healthy, he's going to be a part of this conversation all season.

Keep an eye on: Fry. He isn't going to contend for MVP. He probably won't get any votes. Still, his season has been fascinating for a Guardians squad way better than anyone anticipated. He has hit .353/.485/.608 while getting playing time at first base, at third base, behind the plate and in left field. Despite playing only about half the time, Fry ranks second among AL hitters in win probability added and first in championship probability added. Will it last? Nah. But it's been a joyous run so far.

National League

Front-runner: Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (140.8)

Next nine: 2. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (137.6); 3. William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers (131.9); 4. Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres (128.2); 5. Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves (126.1); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (125.0); 7. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks (122.9); 8. LaMonte Wade Jr., San Francisco Giants (122.0); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (121.7); 10. Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies (120.8)

Leader trend: Thanks to his huge opening series in Korea, Betts leaped to a big early overall lead in AXE and held pole position all the way to May 18, when Ohtani moved into first, inspiring all sorts of historical speculations. Alas, Ohtani has run into a rough stretch over past 10 days or so, allowing Betts to reclaim the top spot. None of this is surprising, of course, given the preseason betting markets. However, those same markets saw Ohtani roughly even with Atlanta's Ronald Acuna Jr. as the favorite for this award, just ahead of Betts. Acuna struggled, then suffered a season-ending knee injury. For now, it's an all-Dodger derby.

Biggest mover: Profar's rise has been more of a steady climb than a spike. Still, he's having the kind of season that once was expected of a player long ago considered one of baseball's top prospects. After a period of exile in Colorado last season, Profar became a value-based fringe re-signing by the Friars this winter when they were desperate for low-cost outfield solutions. Good call. Profar has been a fixture in left for San Diego while putting up an OPS nearly 200 points better than his career norm, and he leads NL hitters in win probability added. This is the best version of Profar we've seen.

Keep an eye on: When you consider age and raw ability, you have to watch De La Cruz. Which shouldn't be hard to do because you just can't take your eyes off of him. The dynamic -- and enormous -- shortstop has become more consistent in the field, and his offensive numbers are better across the board. If he continues his gains on offense, he could hit 25-plus homers with an OPS+ in the 130-ish range and well more than 100 runs scored. And he's on pace to steal 90 bases. If the Reds make a run, De La Cruz will get MVP buzz.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Seth Lugo, Royals (142.0)

Next nine: 2. Tanner Houck, Red Sox (138.6); 3. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (137.5); 4. Luis Gil, Yankees (130.7); 5. Cole Ragans, Royals (126.5); 6. Emmanuel Clase, Guardians (125.3); 7. Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox (126.5); 8. Jon Gray, Texas Rangers (125.2); 9. Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels (125.8); 10. Corbin Burnes, Orioles (123.6)

Leader trend: This leaderboard looks nothing like what we expected entering the season. Only Skubal, Ragans and Burnes garnered much attention in the betting markets. As for Lugo, who could have seen this coming? Lugo leads the AL in wins, winning percentage, innings, quality starts, ERA, ERA+, bWAR and win probability added. At 34, his nine wins are already a career high. Lugo, Houck and Skubal have rotated among the top three slots for the past month. It's a surprising leaderboard and one very much subject to rapid change.

Biggest mover: Gil has become must-see pitching as he seemingly gains confidence and proficiency with every outing. If not for Gerrit Cole's injury, Gil might not have gotten his shot this soon in the New York rotation. Now that he has lowered his ERA from 4.01 at the end of April to 1.99 at the end of May, it's hard to see how you're going to get him out of there.

Keep an eye on: The Red Sox have wasted too many of Houck's good outings so far, but he has emerged as one of the more consistently dominant starters in the league. Houck is working at his career norm in the strikeout category, but his command indicators are off the charts. His walks-per-9 rate has fallen by more than half, and despite all of those pitches in the zone, he has allowed one -- one! -- home run all season. With nine quality starts in 11 outings, he has been doing it nearly every time out.

National League

Front-runner: Ranger Suarez, Phillies (138.1)

Next nine: 2. Chris Sale, Braves (134.7); 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (130.3); 4. Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs (130.2); 5. Hunter Greene, Reds (130.5); 6. Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers (126.5); 7. Logan Webb, Giants (124.5); 8. Reynaldo Lopez, Braves (123.1); 9. Bryan Hudson, Brewers (122.5); 10. Trevor Williams, Washington Nationals (122.9)

Leader trend: Bless the proprietor of baseballmusings.com, who has kept the Bill James Starting Pitcher rankings alive after James shuttered his site. In those rankings, which reflect a longer timeline than current season performance, you can see a big reason the Phillies have rolled: Philly's rotation owns three of the top 10 spots, including Wheeler at No. 1. Wheeler and Aaron Nola are supposed to be up there, but the rise of Suarez has really pushed the Phillies' staff into the stratosphere. He leads the NL in wins, winning percentage, ERA+, WHIP and bWAR. Suarez has owned the top spot in NL pitching AXE since the third week of April.

Biggest mover: That offseason Chris Sale trade? Not looking too good from a Red Sox perspective. Boston got Vaughn Grissom back in that deal. Grissom was injured, and even though he's back on the field, he currently ranks 1,100th out of 1,119 players in AXE. Meanwhile, a somewhat angry-looking Sale has returned to his pre-injury form for an Atlanta rotation that desperately needed someone to step up in the wake of injury losses, especially Spencer Strider, the preseason NL Cy Young favorite. Sale has allowed a total of three runs over his past six starts and moved from 282nd in AXE (among all players) to 17th.

Keep an eye on: After finishing second in last year's NL Cy Young balloting, Webb is displaying an even better combination of bulk and efficiency this season. His style makes him more a tortoise than a hare in this race. Still, his ability to pitch deep into games while keeping the ball out of the middle of the plate -- two homers allowed thus far -- makes him consistent. The Giants have been playing well, too, which should brighten the spotlight on Webb as we get deeper into the campaign.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Luis Gil, Yankees (130.7)

Next nine: 2. Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (118.6); 3. Davis Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (112.5); 4. Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins (114.2); 5. Kyle McCann, Oakland Athletics (108.4); 6. Hunter Gaddis, Guardians (110.6); 7. Justin Slaten, Red Sox (110.5); 8. Cade Smith, Guardians (109.1); 9. Colton Cowser, Orioles (106.3); 10. Wenceel Perez, Tigers (104.6)

Leader trend: Abreu led this race up until a couple of weeks ago when Gil overtook him. The gap has since widened with each outing by New York's dynamic rookie. There is a lot of room for movement in these rankings, but if Gil sticks in the Yankees' rotation, he's going to be hard to supplant.

Biggest mover: Richardson's once-glossy prospect outlook had dimmed. But he has made changes to his technique -- a lower arm slot -- that speak to a very real possibility that his early work in the Twins' rotation is sustainable. His strikeout rate isn't elite, making him reliant on plus command. So far, it has been that and then some. He has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts.

Keep an eye on: The preseason favorites have fallen back of the leaders, but the end of the May isn't too late for the likes of Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter and even Jackson Holliday to make up ground. Holliday has to get back to the majors first, of course, and he has been just so-so since returning to the minors about a month ago.

National League

Front-runner: Shota Imanaga, Cubs (130.2)

Next nine: 2. Bryan Hudson, Brewers (122.5); 3. Ben Brown, Cubs (121.6); 4. Masyn Winn, St. Louis Cardinals (115.0); 5. Joey Ortiz, Brewers (112.7); 6. Gavin Stone, Dodgers (114.6); 7. Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates (113.9); 8. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (113.6); 9. Michael Busch, Cubs (109.8); 10. Mitchell Parker, Nationals (112.4)

Leader trend: Imanaga started like a house on fire, and with his exuberant on-field body language, he has often kind of looked like he is on fire at times. Either way, he has been dynamite and consistent for the Cubs, leading these rankings -- and Yamamoto -- all season. Imanaga put up his first clunker in his last start, allowing seven runs to Milwaukee on May 29, so it will be interesting to see how he responds to his first bit of adversity. Second-place Hudson is neither a closer nor a starter and, thus, not really an awards contender. But the 27-year-old former Dodger has been a godsend for a Brewers bullpen working around the injury to Devin Williams.

Biggest mover: Brown made his MLB debut in Texas against the champion Rangers. It was hard to watch. He faced 12 batters, allowing 5 hits, 2 walks and 6 runs and generally resembling a deer in headlights. Since then, he has posted a 1.61 ERA over 12 outings and started to work out of the Cubs' rotation. In his last outing, Brown struck out 10 during seven no-hit innings against the Brewers. His AXE rating has gone from 204th overall at the beginning of May to 66th.

Keep an eye on: It's got to be Paul Skenes, right? He has made only four starts in the majors, but his AXE already ranks 15th among NL rookies. He has more than enough time to make up for his too-long time in the minors. Given the level of his pre-majors hype, it was going to be awfully hard for Skenes to live up to expectations. So far, he has. ESPN BET already has Skenes up to second in its odds for NL Rookie of the Year, behind Imanaga.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Stephen Vogt, Guardians (112.8)

Next four: 2. Matt Quatraro, Royals (110.9); 3. Aaron Boone, Yankees (108.3); 4. Brandon Hyde, Orioles (108.1); 5. Scott Servais, Seattle Mariners (105.4)

How the race is going: The manager balloting is always tied to team expectation and team performance, with other factors like overcoming a key injury coming into play. Right now, Vogt -- a rookie manager tasked with replacing legend Terry Francona in the Cleveland dugout -- has the Guardians on a 107-win pace. There aren't many seasons in which a manager might outshine what Quatraro has done for the shockingly good Royals, but this is one of them. So far.

National League

Front-runner: Rob Thomson, Phillies (112.2)

Next four: 2. Pat Murphy, Brewers (107.4); 3. Dave Martinez, Nationals (107.2); 4. Oliver Marmol, Cardinals (104.6); 5. Derek Shelton, Pirates (104.0)

How the race is going: The low-key Thomson has become one of baseball's best managers. He has done nothing but win in the Phillies' dugout since taking over from Joe Girardi and leading Philly to the 2022 World Series. In fact, among managers who have gotten in at least a full season leading the Phillies, Thomson has the highest winning percentage in the history of a franchise that began in 1883. The 2024 Phils are on pace to set franchise records in winning percentage and Pythagorean winning percentage. That's why the manager of a team that was expected to be good leads in this metric.